The study reveals that Fossil-based back-up generation will continue to play a substantial role in 2030. Even under the Green Transition (best-case) scenario, the study showed that almost half of the Nigerian population will still be dependent on these back-up generators with demand growing above 100TWh as there are no near-term clear policy signals to show a different trend. There is much uncertainty around how many generators there are in Nigeria and what growth trends they will show in the future.